Economic consequences




In 2016, the commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future estimated that pandemic disease events would cost the global economy over $6 trillion in the 21st century—over $60 billion per year. The same report recommended spending $4.5 billion annually on global prevention and response capabilities to reduce the threat posed by pandemic events, a figure that the World Bank Group raised to $13 billion in a 2019 report. It has been suggested that such costs be paid from a tax on aviation rather than from, e.g., income taxes, given the crucial role of air traffic in transforming local epidemics into pandemics (being the only factor considered in state-of-the-art models of long-range disease transmission ).

The 2019-2020 COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a profound negative effect on the global economy, potentially for years to come, with substantial drops in GDP accompanied by increases in unemployment noted around the world. The slowdown of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. The reduction of air pollution, and economic activity associated with it during a pandemic was first documented by Alexander F. More for the Black Death plague pandemic, showing the lowest pollution levels in the last 2000 years occurring during that pandemic, due to its 40 to 60% death rate through out Eurasia.

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